Saturday, May 15, 2021

Emmitt Smith - Greatness Taken For Granted

 


To me, it's mind-blowing that a running back like Emmitt Smith's caliber can be so underrated. It's almost impossible to have one of the greatest records in all of sports and all of the other accomplishments that Emmitt piled up and still be underrated, but that's exactly what he is. In my opinion, Emmitt is undoubtedly a top 3 all-time running back, and a case can be made for him as the GOAT. What makes Emmitt underrated is that most "experts" have a hard time putting him in their top 3 and possibly top 5 all-time running backs list.

It just blows me away that for whatever the reason is, Emmitt seems to be the only all-time great that gets penalized for the teammates he had. All great teams have MORE THAN ONE great player. You don't hear much of anything about wins coming so easily for Jim Brown, Joe Montana, or Jerry Rice because of the talent surrounding them. All of the evidence proves the opposite, and Emmitt Smith is the only case you can say that about. Jerry Rice's team won the Super Bowl the year before he got there, and every year he was dominant he had a Hall Of Fame QB (see Joe Montana, Steve Young) throwing to him. Jim Brown's teams were always dominant, and he always had at least 3 Pro Bowl/Hall Of Fame linemen blocking for him.

Here is the evidence on Emmitt Smith:

1.) Made The Cowboys A Winner
The Cowboys were the worst team in football in 1989 with a 1-15 record, then had a 6-game turnaround in 1990. The team wasn't a winner before Emmitt and haven't been without him.

2.) Made Everybody Around Him Better
The best example of this is the fact that most of Emmitt's offensive linemen were there years before he got there, even blocked for a prime Herschel Walker, and still no Pro Bowl. Also, Troy Aikman and Michael Irvin would be the first to tell you that their careers didn't take off until Emmitt became their teammate.

3.) Most Important And Talented Player On A GOAT-Level Team
The Cowboys won games without Troy Aikman or Michael Irvin, but not without Emmitt.

4.) Most Successful Running Back Of All-Time (Stats/Rings)
Emmitt was the most consistent and successful running back ever at every level. He is the only running back in the history of football to break the state rushing record in high school, the school record in college, and the NFL all-time rushing record.

5.) Enduring Greatness
After the Super Bowl years and Emmitt had slowed down, he had a bad line, the Cowboys had no other weapons on offense, defenses still sold out to stop him, and he still had the greatest post-30 football career of any running back in NFL history, not to mention his 2 years with the Cardinals. Judging from the impact he had on his team, I don't know if there has ever been another running back in the history of the NFL that made as big a difference to his team's success as Emmitt. In his 15 seasons in the NFL, he made an impact that few players can match at any position or any era.


As far as which running back made the biggest impact in the NFL in his career, I would definitely have to choose Emmitt Smith. There is more to the story than stats alone could possibly tell, especially since they don't always reflect the contribution or value of a player to his team, but at the same time numbers don't lie. In my opinion, Emmitt is the most productive and important running back in NFL history. No running back has ever contributed to the success of their team like Emmitt did. No franchise rode a back harder, longer, or to as many championships as the Cowboys did with Emmitt. No running back has accomplished more. That's why a case can be made for Emmitt as the GOAT. Let the "experts" tell it, a 5'9" running back that runs a 4.5 in the 40 is not supposed to be an NFL star, but now Emmitt has the most prestigious record in football.

One other thing I want to point out is that the rushing record is the hardest to get because a running back has to go through a lot of defenses selling out to stop him, along with staying healthy. To me, that's pretty convincing. I was lucky enough to grow up watching Emmitt Smith and Barry Sanders, and even though I'm not old enough to have seen Jim Brown play, I have seen a bunch of his highlights and heard personal accounts from several people at NFL Films who all have basically said he was a monster. I would easily have Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders, Jim Brown, and Walter Payton as the top 4 running backs ever, and not necessarily in that order. A case can be made for all of them as the best ever.

Emmitt Smith was everything you want in a running back. He was the epitome of a complete running back. He was tough as nails, a warrior (with durability only matched by Walter Payton and Jim Brown), a ferocious blocker, a lethal receiver out of the backfield, and if he had an open lane, most likely he would be adding another football to the collection in his storage room. He was also the Cowboys' best 3rd down back, best goal line back, and best pass protector........in the good and bad years.

So many people have a hard time acknowledging that Emmitt was a very special running back. He made it look easy, and so many people took it for granted. There is a reason the Cowboys could never win without him in the '90s. I'm not taking anything away from Troy Aikman or Michael Irvin, or anybody else from Emmitt's supporting cast, but the offense was completely different without Emmitt. He was the key to the offense running so smoothly. Nobody knows for sure what Emmitt's prime would have looked like without that supporting cast. I won't argue that he would still be the NFL's all-time leading rusher if he had switched places with Walter Payton or Barry Sanders. I also won't deny that he benefited from some good fortune, which ALL record holders do. All I'm saying is that Emmitt is one of the very best running backs in the history of not just the NFL, but football period.

The fact that Emmitt Smith's resume is full of the words first, most, greatest, and record-breaking still doesn't impress a whole lot of these "experts" who crave flashier and more dynamic players. Here is a look at everything Emmitt did in his career to become the most accomplished running back in football history:

-NFL All-Time Leading Rusher
-NFL All-Time Leading Postseason Rusher
-Monday Night Football All-Time Leading Rusher
-Dallas Cowboys Ring Of Honor (2005)
-Pro Football Hall Of Fame (2010)
-NFL 1990s All-Decade Team
-8x Pro Bowl Selection (1990-95, 1998-99)
-4x First Team All-Pro (1992-95)
-Second Team All-Pro (1991)
-3x Super Bowl Champion (XXVII, XXVIII, XXX)
-Super Bowl XXVIII MVP
-1990 NFL Offensive Rookie Of The Year
-1993 NFL MVP
-1993 PFWA NFL MVP
-1993 TSN NFL MVP
-1993 Miller Lite Player Of The Year
-1994 TSN Sportsman Of The Year
-2x NEA NFL MVP (1991, 1992)
-1993 Bert Bell Award
-5x Galloping Gobbler Award
-3x First Team All-SEC (1987, 1988, 1989)
-1989 SEC Player Of The Year
-1989 First Team All-American
-1987 SEC Freshman Of The Year
-1987 National Freshman Of The Year
-Gator Football Ring Of Honor
-College Football Hall Of Fame (2006)
-Florida High School All-Century Team
-Florida High School Athletic Association Player Of The Century
-1986 USA Today High School Player Of The Year
-1986 Parade Magazine High School Player Of The Year

NFL Records
-Most rushing yards in a career (18,355)
-Most rushing touchdowns in a career (164)
-Most rushing attempts in a career (4,409)
-Most consecutive 1,000-yard seasons (11)
-Most 1,000-yard seasons in a career (11)
-Most 100-yard games in a career (78)
-Most games in a season with a touchdown (15 in 1995)
-Most games in a season with a rushing touchdown (15 in 1995)
-Most rushing yards after turning 30 years old (5,789)
-Most playoff rushing yards in a career (1,586)
-Most playoff rushing touchdowns in a career (19)
-Most playoff total touchdowns in a career (21 - tied with Thurman Thomas)
-Most consecutive playoff games with a rushing touchdown (9)
-Most 100-yard playoff games (7 - ties with Terrell Davis)

Accomplishments
-Only running back in football history to be his state's all-time leading rusher in high school, school's all-time leading rusher in college, and the NFL's all-time leading rusher

-Only running back in NFL history to win a rushing title, MVP, Super Bowl, and Super Bowl MVP in the same season

-Only running back (since the merger) to lead the NFL in carries, rushing yards, all-purpose yards, rushing touchdowns, and total touchdowns in the same season

-First running back in NFL history to win a rushing title and Super Bowl in the same season

-First running back to rush for 1,400+ yards in 5 straight seasons

-One of 2 non-kickers in NFL history to score over 1,000 points in a career (Jerry Rice)

-One of 5 players with 10,000 rushing yards and 400 receptions in a career

-One of 3 running backs to start their careers with 7 straight 10-touchdown seasons (Jim Brown, LaDanian Tomlinson)



Tim Duncan - A Basketball Unicorn (Part 2)

 



Disclaimer: The mental gymnastics and contradictions that the media spits out all the time are so agenda-driven that it's laughable. They are the ones most responsible for Tim Duncan/the Spurs having the "boring" stigma attached to them. Whenever people parrot that agenda, it tells me how little they appreciate the game of basketball itself and how much they prefer highlight reel plays over the subtleties of the game. The same way I did in Part 1, I'll be using inarguable facts to disprove false narratives and make my case for Tim Duncan being the greatest player of his generation, as well as one of the 5 greatest players ever. Once again, I'm here to educate, not to push my own narrative.



In my opinion, Tim Duncan is the most overlooked and disrespected superstar in NBA history. He is the one player that gets repeatedly left out of the discussion of pantheon basketball players time after time that shouldn't be. I understand that it's hard to not put certain players high on the list of all-time greats, but TD is of the same caliber as any player that has ever played the game. All of those other guys were amazing, but a strong argument can be made for TD when you measure his entire body of work against theirs. 

Yes, this is a subjective topic, but I still haven't heard anybody come up with a good enough reason why Tim Duncan can't measure up to those players. I'm not expecting people to start calling him the greatest ever, but I don't see how it's possible to leave him out of the discussion. It's actually not all that hard to come up with reasons why TD could be considered a better basketball player than some of the consensus all-time greats. He absolutely should be considered one of the 5 greatest players ever. With his body of work, there is no argument to keep him out. 

Statistically, there are many players ahead of TD on the all-time lists, but when you're on a basketball court, there is so much more than just statistics. For those reasons alone he's a pantheon player. He knew how to win and did it his whole career. His game was built around consistent dominance throughout his career. TD was reliant on making the right decisions on the court, playing smart basketball, and making his team better as a whole. That's why certain players seem to outshine him at first glance, based on a few seasons, but it doesn't mean they were better than him. He was all about long-term success.

When you put it all together - 5 championships, individual accolades, regular season winning percentage, statistics, postseason dominance, 2-way dominance, longevity, adaptability, the clutch gene, intangibles, the ability to elevate his team, etc. - Tim Duncan checks all the boxes for being a GOAT-level player. Once you factor in all of those elements, the list of players that check all of those boxes starts to shrink pretty fast. There is also the fact that some of these all-time greats that are considered better than TD have blemishes on their resumes that he doesn't have. This IS NOT about tearing those other legends down to build TD up.

Every last one of those players in the GOAT conversation have holes in their resume. It's just that people let things like raw numbers, highlight clips, and even revisionist history cloud their judgment when it comes to supporting their favorite players and having their beliefs justified. Largely because of that, some of these legends have their shortcomings whitewashed by certain historic moments in their careers. Aside from the amazing resume he put together, here are some things Tim Duncan did that get routinely overlooked:

*Sacrificed stats to win
*Won 4 championships without another All-NBA teammate (most ever)
*Won 4 championships as his team's only 20-point per game scorer
*Won all 5 championships without a teammate averaging 20 points per game
*Best player on the team for all 5 championship runs
*Best player on the team for all 6 NBA Finals appearances
*Took his team to back-to-back NBA Finals as their best player at 37 and 38 years old
*Started on a championship team in 3 different decades
*An All-NBA First Team selection in 3 different decades


Name me another franchise in the NBA besides the Spurs that contended for and won championships every single year for approximately 2 decades with the EXACT SAME PLAYER as the focal point throughout the entire run. There is no other one, especially in today's NBA with rampant free agency and the way the salary cap is set up. There is one other huge factor in Tim Duncan being one of the all-time great champions in basketball history: He's the only player of the modern era to win 5 championships with the same franchise, but with an entirely different supporting cast around him. The only other player to do that was Bill Russell. TD also did all of this without a truly dominant sidekick. He accomplished a lot in the NBA before and after his best teammates had come and gone. 

A major part of what makes Tim Duncan a basketball unicorn were things like his leadership, competitiveness, mental fortitude, and will to win, which were all unmatched. He also had every intangible in the book. The intangible that gets overlooked most is the same one that became the foundation of the Spurs' culture - SELFLESSNESS. TD had that trait in spades. Unfortunately, it was a big reason he flew under the radar and the media didn't talk about him until they were forced to. His game was based on team-centric fundamentals that couldn't be measured in stats. I always felt like TD would have been putting up video game-like numbers if he played in a system that required more selfishness.

A lot of players say they want to win, but when you ask them to do things like taking a pay cut or coming off the bench, they have a problem with it. Whatever was asked of Tim Duncan that would make the Spurs better, he did it willingly. People don't understand the egos that come along with that and how unheard of or unparalleled that was by TD. Not every superstar has the ego to deal with what Gregg Popovich throws at them. These days when a coach tries to tell a superstar what to do and they don't like it, they go over the coach's head to the GM or owner. Players know that the NBA is a player's league, and they want to make sure they are on the same level with the coaches in the power structure.

The easiest and best example of Tim Duncan's selflessness that I can give is him embracing his role change:

Imagine being a perennial All-Star/All-NBA player, the greatest to ever play your position, and you carried the team on your back to 4 championships. You still have some elite basketball left in you and are still capable of carrying a team, but your coach wants to revamp the offense to do more running and 3-point shooting. He also tells you that he needs you to concentrate on rebounding and defense, that you'll be scoring less, and that you'll be playing fewer minutes because of this new up-tempo style and to preserve your legs.

On most occasions a superstar would crucify his coach, manipulate the local media to stall the team's new direction, and get the whole front office fired before he forced a trade from his team and leave them to pick up the pieces. Some players would rather be the best player on a bad team than the 2nd best on a championship contender. Tim Duncan sacrificed shots, minutes, and money for the sake of his team. Also, superstars don't check their egos and allow their coach to dress them down in front of teammates. TD did it because he wanted to set a standard for his teammates on what's OK and what's not OK. He didn't just give lip service to wanting to win championships.

The fact that Tim Duncan was STILL willing to sacrifice his body, touches, money, and time away from his family.....in his late 30's AFTER winning multiple championships and pilling up countless accolades, when he had ABSOLUTELY NOTHING left to prove, speaks volumes about his character. Things like that are what make him the GOAT teammate. It's a shame how somebody like that can be so undervalued and underappreciated.

It's a testament to Tim Duncan's enduring greatness that he was able to change his game after his knee injury and become an even better player than his pre-injury self, then transform his body and reinvent his game as he got into his mid to late 30's and continue to play at an All-Star level as he was approaching 40. Here is a quick summary of the changes TD made to alter his game:

*Lost weight to improve quickness and lessen the wear and tear on his knees.

*Drifted away from the basket at a steady pace, going from shooting most of his shots close to the basket to shooting from further than 10 feet.

*Started taking more jumpers off the dribble.

*Adjusted from being a high-level post player to being a master high screen facilitator.

*Went from having the offense run through him in the post to the 2nd or 3rd option on most plays, allowing him to save energy for the defensive end of the floor instead of fighting for position in the paint on every possession.


It was absolutely amazing to see Tim Duncan have a Benjamin Button-like renaissance and get better at an age where most players have either had a significant decline in their games or have already retired. That's a testament to his talent, fundamentals, and basketball IQ. Even though TD's role on offense had reduced, he was still the linchpin - still engineering the Spurs with his passing abilities, wide variety of moves in the paint, and his creativity and decision-making. He was rewarded with a 5th championship in 2014 for his willingness to adapt to a new system and role, which speaks to how easy TD was to play with. A 1st round exit in 2011, whispers of him being done, and a shakeup in his personal life gave TD all the motivation he needed to take his game back to MVP-consideration level.

The best thing about Tim Duncan's greatness, especially late in his career, was that he continued to build a legacy instead of clinging to past accomplishments. He wasn't some oldhead just holding on and chipping in every blue moon in his last few years. As TD got older, he worked harder to stay in shape so there would be little drop-off in his production. Also, his leadership and willingness to be coached are what separated him from other superstars in the NBA. That was critical to the Spurs' ability to bring in new role players every year that seemed to be a perfect fit. Those unicorn-like traits were also a major part of how TD was able to anchor the NBA's model franchise on both ends of the floor and in the locker room for 19 years.

One other transcendent aspect of Tim Duncan's game that he doesn't get enough credit for is adapting. He was a staple of multiple systems that produced championships and perennial contention at worst. He won championships in 3 different decades with different rosters around him. TD also wasn't era dependent like a lot of other stars. He was an All-Star and All-NBA player throughout different eras as the game changed. His staying power, competitive edge, and drive were right up there with Michael Jordan's. TD's combination of professionalism and competitiveness is the rarest of the rare.

Tim Duncan is the measuring stick for sustained excellence, and rightfully so. He redefined success in the NBA. Michael Jordan and Bill Russell might have won more championships, but they didn't play as long. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar has the most career wins ever for an individual player, but he changed teams and had some down years early in his career, even missing the playoffs. Shaquille O'Neal, Kobe Bryant, and LeBron James all played for different coaches - with Shaq and LeBron playing for multiple teams. TD played his whole career with the same team and for the same coach.  He won NBA championships in 3 different decades (1990s, 2000's 2010s). TD was also an All-NBA First Team selection in 3 different decades. Nobody else in the history of the game has done that.

So many people over the years have misguidedly dogged Tim Duncan and thought he was just lucky to be drafted by the Spurs and that all of his success came too easily. Nothing could be further from the truth. Nobody said a thing about the Spurs organization until after he came along, and now people want to pretend like he walked into what they became under him. Attempting to revise history to pretend that the Spurs were a powerhouse before TD is disingenuous and discredits him. 

Tim Duncan was the centerpiece in all that the Spurs accomplished. People see the names David Robinson, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili and think he played on stacked teams his whole career. They also compound that belief by bringing up TD being coached by Gregg Popovich the whole time. Let me break it down for you: 

As great as David Robinson was, after he had 2 career-altering injuries he wasn't the same dominant MVP-level player he had been, and he was also getting older. TP and Manu weren't expected to become stars when they were drafted by the Spurs as late round picks. Did I mention that Coach Pop was almost fired in 1999 after the team got off to a slow start? One other thing TD should get more credit for is keeping the Spurs in contention all those years despite San Antonio not being a major free agent destination and the team getting low draft picks every year. It's not easy by any stretch of the imagination to retool your team and keep winning when you pick in the 20s in every draft. 


The Spurs were always great largely because of how coachable Tim Duncan was, as well as his strong desire to be the best, among many other traits. You can't quantify his greatness with statistics. He did put up some good numbers, he also has plenty of accolades, but it goes way beyond that. To me, TD was the type of player that would score the least amount of points to win a game. If he felt like he could win the game by scoring 10 points, then would go for 10. If he felt like he needed 20, he would go for 20. TD was capable of putting up 30 every night if he really wanted to though. In that regard he is probably the most balanced player I have ever seen.

I believe it's safe to say that no other player on the consensus top 10 all-time list could or would have been able to spend their entire career in San Antonio and be able to win 5 championships like Tim Duncan did. It's hard to deny Michael Jordan's impact on basketball. For all of LeBron James' "dominance", he couldn't win a title without a stacked team around him. If you take a hard look at who surrounded all of these players when they won their titles it's awfully hard to push TD out of the 5 greatest of all-time. Nobody has done more with less than him.

Like I said in Part 1, there is no clear-cut GOAT in basketball because every candidate has flaws you can point out. There is a strong case for Tim Duncan being as good as any player in history. This is not just me trying to hype up my favorite basketball player. His resume speaks for itself. And if you take nostalgia and sentimentality out of the conversation, you can't name 5 players with better credentials than TD. Then once you factor in that he did most of it with only 1 healthy leg for roughly 85% of his career, that makes his case even stronger. Bottom line, Tim Duncan is more than worthy of being in the GOAT conversation.

I wouldn't necessarily consider myself a sports genius, but I will say that my intuition might be a little more developed than others. With that being said, I always knew Tim Duncan was more than just a great player who was in the right place at the right time and lucky to be drafted into the situation that he was, and success coming easy to him. I always thought of him as the representation of the model superstar and what it takes to be a GOAT-level champion, especially on a small market team not in a glamorous city.

There are a lot of books that cover the other greats on the consensus top 10 all-time list, and their rise to stardom, but Tim Duncan's story was different. In my book The Underappreciated Greatness Of Tim Duncan, I go into detail about what sets him apart from all the other legends. When I was doing research for the book, I wanted to get a clear picture of TD's accomplishments from a historical standpoint and convey that to my readers. I knew he was doing things nobody else had done, but I wanted to double check the details.

The way I put it in perspective is like this:

Tim Duncan didn't pile up all of his accomplishments in Boston, Los Angeles, or New York. He did it all in San Antonio, where it was an extra challenge to make it all happen. And then there was the disrespect from the NBA and the media, rule changes designed to rein in his dominance, etc. It's like rapper E-40's saying goes: "Hate come with the plate". It's just an unfortunate reality. All of those things, along with the limitations of playing in a small market, made it an extra challenge to be 10 toes down in San Antonio for his whole career. 

For Tim Duncan to do what he did in that city, all the lives he enriched, the way he elevated the Spurs franchise, took in a bunch of castoffs from other teams and turn them into champions, and the general excellence that marked his career speaks major volumes to his greatness. To me, those things also make TD the greatest pro of all-time in any team sport. Since the NBA won't ever have another Tim Duncan, every fan of the sport should take some time once in a while to appreciate him.


If you truly want to know more about what makes Tim Duncan a basketball unicorn, I go into much more detail in this book titled The Underappreciated Greatness Of Tim Duncan:




Tuesday, April 27, 2021

Reaching For Need In The Draft Is ALWAYS A Mistake




Reaching and drafting for need go hand-in-hand. The reason why is because usually when a team reaches on a draft pick, they do it to fill a need. Sports teams reach every year in their drafts. Since it happens in the NFL more than any of the other major sports leagues, I'll just focus on them for this piece to keep things simple. Before I go any further, let me give you my definition of reaching:

reach- when you draft a player ahead of where they should be drafted.

In other words, that player's talent wasn't worth the value of the draft pick used to select him and he would have been available at a later spot. Usually desperation, fear, or ego are the main motivators for teams drafting a player too high to fill a pressing need. There are 2 types of teams that draft for need: one that's poorly run and one that has a gaping hole at a premium position. From my observation, reaching for need is DANGEROUS and very rarely seems to work out.

As a matter of fact, I feel like drafting for need is football suicide. Often when a team reaches and takes a player higher than they are projected to go, they miss out on a better prospect that was available. These misses get magnified because the decision maker's focus was so narrow. They ignored other players with star potential at other positions for the sake of a short term fix. Let me also point out that the same needs you have on draft day might not be the same needs you have when you break training camp and get ready for your first game. As violent as the NFL is, any position can become a need on any given play.

I'm all for drafting the best player available. Even if a player doesn't fill a need, drafting him can still help your team. Going BPA can make a great strength even stronger or turn something mediocre into a great strength. Drafting for need can turn something you are terrible at into a mediocre strength. There's also the fact that the prospect you reached on to fill a need might not be developed enough to fill that need right away. You never want to waste the value of a draft spot because of a perceived roster hole.

The most common logic among Cowboys fans in recent years has been, "Our offense is already good enough. We need defense." The defense has so many holes in it that by the time it gets fixed it'll be time to rebuild the offense. In fact, the Cowboys need defense every year. We spend more draft picks on defense in every draft and STILL need defense. I'm always looking for the defensive players that they draft and barely see any of them on the field, and the ones I do see are playing, but not making much of an impact. It's the same old problem every year.

Reaching or drafting for need usually results in getting a substandard player. Most of the times the Cowboys have done it, like when we drafted Shante Carver, Greg Ellis, Ebeneezer Ekuban, and Taco Charlton, the administration graded on a curve and talked themselves into believing that the grade was close enough. At the end of the day, you should NOT have to talk yourself into a guy. If you have to talk yourself into a prospect, you are definitely making a mistake if you draft him.

I'm well aware of how many holes the Cowboys have on defense and how they were historically bad this past season. Because they have so many holes on that side of the ball, it would be easy for the front office to get fixated on a defensive player with the 10th overall pick in this year's draft. The problem with that is the 2021 draft class being so thin on defensive players at the top. In my opinion, the defensive class as a whole is not all that great. But if the Cowboys went defense with their first pick, I wouldn't be upset as long as that player is the BPA. 

Before I get into my thoughts on how the Cowboys should approach this year's draft here are my 2 biggest cardinal sins of drafting:

Reaching/Drafting For Need: Again, I combine both of these things because a reach usually is a need pick. To me, reaching for a player in the draft has the same effect as overpaying a free agent, whether it's one of your own or one from another team. Either way, you eventually end up having "buyer's remorse" in both situations because the player doesn't perform up to the standards of his draft status/contract. Every time you go for need, you will be angry with yourself, especially if you draft that player too high.

Putting Limits On The Talent At A Position: This goes under the concept of taking the best player available in the draft. I can't speak for anybody else, but if the best player on my draft board plays a position that's well-stocked, guess what? I'm picking him anyway. It's all about accumulating talent and giving yourself flexibility. Besides, you can never have too many great players at one position. You also have to create competition at every position. Because if you don't, human nature can take over and players can get complacent and think they don't have to work as hard, which is another blog in itself.


As far as the 2021 NFL Draft goes, at least in the 1st round, the Cowboys' brain trust can't let themselves get caught up in reaching for a need. It usually doesn't end well for teams when they pass on a better player to check a box. Also, with so many players having similar grades and being closer in talent levels later in the draft, there is too muck risk in reaching at the top. Besides, if the player filling the need was really worth picking in the first place, the team wouldn't need to reach because he would already have a grade that's worthy of that draft slot.

With the 10th pick in the 1st round, the Cowboys are in a good position. From that spot, they have the ability to see how the draft board starts to fall, which prospects might start sliding, and which teams behind them might be looking to trade up. I know the "we need defense" crowd doesn't want to hear this, but if the Cowboys stay at 10, they have to be ready to take the highest rated prospect on their board......even if it is an offensive player. Defense very well could be the priority with the No. 10 pick, but it should NOT take precedence over drafting the best player available.

Before I go any further, let me admit that I do have my preference for who I want the Cowboys to draft with their first pick. I would like either Penei Sewell, Rashawn Slater, or Kyle Pitts. I would be ecstatic to hear one of their names called. But let's not get it twisted, this IS NOT my personal campaign for the team to draft one of these guys. What I am saying is that if one of them falls to No. 10, they will be the best player available. If that happens to be the case, you take them and figure out the rest later.

If we get one of those tackles, it would be insurance for the offensive line in case one of our incumbent starters went down. Tyron Smith is going into his 11th season and coming off of neck surgery. He also has had back issues for several years and hasn't played a full season since 2015. La'el Collins missed all of last season after having hip surgery. It's been said that his hip is didn't have any cartilage in it, that it's bone on bone. Whether that's true or not, he did have a hip injury that was serious enough to require surgery and keep him out for the season. It doesn't bode well for his future.

Tyron Smith and La'el Collins are one of the better tackle tandems in the NFL when healthy, but the "when healthy" is used to describe the Cowboys' offensive line situation as a whole. Now when you factor in the back issues that Zack Martin has been dealing with the last couple of years, you have an aging O-line with injuries to parts of the body that are crucial to the performance of an offensive lineman. Their necks, backs, and hips will be involved in every single play. Even if you have a good feeling about them holding up this year, O-line SHOULD NOT be ignored.

I personally don't trust either one of our tackles to stay healthy for the season. Back issues don't get better as you get older, and when you compound them with a neck injury, it makes the situation that much worse. A hip with bones grinding against each other sounds like a career-threatening issue to me. I would love to be wrong about both of these guys and have them for the whole season. If it works out that way, that would be great, and we could put Sewell/Slater at guard for the time being. The good thing about this year's draft is that there are about 10 tackles worthy of being picked in the first 3 rounds if we don't get one of those 2 guys.

The offensive line started their decline when Travis Fredrick retired last year. Then the decline accelerated with La'el Collins having a hip surgery that ended his season before it got started. Then came Tyron Smith's neck issues that kept him out of all but 2 games, eventually leading to surgery. Then Zack Martin had an assortment of injuries (back, concussion, calf strain) that caused him to miss significant time. Here's one more reason why I would like to have one of those tackles: After committing to our quarterback long-term with a new contract, I would like to protect that investment.

Even though the Cowboys are strong at wide receiver and solid at tight end, they still shouldn't shy away from drafting Kyle Pitts, or maybe even Jaylen Waddle if either one of them are the best player available on their board. Pitts is considered a "unicorn" and a generational talent at TE, and Waddle has a gear that the other receivers in this draft class don't have. His speed is just different. A great player at a position of lesser need is better than a bust at a position of need. It's all about "keeping your strength strong". 

Also, adding one of those guys to your offense would give you even more roster flexibility with the possibility of losing Michael Gallup in free agency in 2022, as well as the ability to cut ties with Amari Cooper if they see fit. Bottom line, the Cowboys shouldn't gamble on a player they don't fully believe in if a player they have ranked higher falls to them. We also shouldn't lose sight of the fact that teams draft players for what they can do in the future, not just as rookies. It might be tough for Pitts or Waddle to have much of an impact in Year 1 because of how the current roster is built, but in the following 2 years when Gallup or Dalton Schultz's contracts are up, more opportunities would open up for them.

Let me put it to you another way: Being on the clock with the No. 10 pick, your offensive line has been having trouble staying healthy in recent years, and you have a blue chip offensive lineman in Penei Sewell, widely considered the top lineman in the draft, fall in your lap. Or, you already have solid players on your team at tight end, but a potential all-time great in Kyle Pitts slides to No. 10. If either one of these situations played out, why would you pass on the blue chip talent to take a lesser talent at a position of need? This is where franchises can get themselves in a lot of trouble. If you go by who the best player is on your board at that time and not worry about need or depth at a position, it usually works out well for you.

The draft is an imperfect science, and the process is already hard enough. Reaching with a pick and hoping you are right only compounds the problem. There is nothing worse than knowing who you could have had, it will make you sick. If you reach on a player and he turns out to be awful, it looks even worse when you see who you could have gotten instead. It makes it that much worse if you pass on a blue chip player. In fact, it could turn out to be a generational mistake for your franchise.

To an owner or a GM, a draft bust means putting millions of dollars into a paper shredder. To a fan, it just means having to wait another year for a chance to draft a player that could help their favorite team. It might seem easy from the outside, but there is so much more that goes into these draft choices than the average fan will ever know. But here's one thing that will never change: Having a special player trumps having a good player at a position of need.




Sunday, April 25, 2021

Tim Duncan - A Basketball Unicorn (Part 1)



Disclaimer: A major factor in my motivation for writing this blog is that I feel more people should know that Tim Duncan, especially at his best, could hold his own with ANY player in the history of basketball. When he was at the height of his powers and the most feared player in basketball, his detractors always tried to marginalize him to any role they could to make it easier for them to downplay his dominance.

Not many people will debate that TD is one of the greatest players ever, but all the arguments I've heard to discredit him and marginalize his achievements have been mind-numbing. Because different people value different things in discussions on all-time player rankings, as time passes people start becoming misinformed on certain players' impacts in the NBA's history. Easily, the player who immediately comes to mind that's victimized by revisionist history, misinformation, or rhetoric that's completely based in fallacy is Tim Duncan.

None of the criticisms against TD are hard fact arguments. They serve as examples of how there is a disconnect between how he's valued by his peers and by basketball fans and the media. It's also the easiest way to dismiss a lot of context and dumb down discussions. Even though I'm always ready to fact check people that either undersell TD or don't get their facts right when they talk about him, a lot of times I keep what I know to myself.

Any Tim Duncan fact that I blog, post on social media, or speak about out loud, I can back it up AND point you in the right direction if you want to research it for yourself. I'm also confident in my ability to defend my opinions without letting being a fan cloud my judgment. Bottom line, I'm here to educate, not push narratives. If I'm wrong, I'll gladly admit it. 


If Tim Duncan spent his career in either Los Angeles, New York, or Boston, he would have been seen as the basketball unicorn that he is and also as a consensus top 5 all-time player. I'm well aware that all-time rankings are subjective, but TD is worthy of being in the pantheon of basketball's all-time greats and more than deserves to be mentioned among the very best of the best without it being seen as a joke.

For starters, let me just say that there is no clear-cut GOAT in basketball. Every candidate for that title has flaws and holes in their resumes that you can point out. It's funny how there are certain "names" that the media feels obligated to put above Tim Duncan on their all-time lists, yet if you ask most experts, they would take him over Magic Johnson or Larry Bird to start a franchise with. 

Most of the media and casual fans begrudgingly put Tim Duncan in the bottom half of the top 10 in their all-time rankings. These people fail to see that TD dominated every aspect of the game pertaining to his position, while some of the guys they rank ahead of him didn't. There are also guys ranked ahead of TD that had shorter careers, better teammates, and the same amount or less championships. To me, there's NO WAY you can rank TD lower than No. 5 all-time. If you take nostalgia and sentimentality out of the conversation, you can't name 5 players with better credentials than him.


Now here are 3 things that I believe make Tim Duncan a basketball unicorn:

*Abilities

Tim Duncan was an extremely intelligent, adaptive, and highly skilled basketball player. He also wasn't a traditional big man when he came into the NBA. He was taller than a traditional power forward, more quick and mobile than a traditional big man, and also more athletic and fit than a traditional big man. Part of what made TD so good was that he also shot better and drove to the basket better than a traditional big man.

TD was a great midrange shooter, and could have likely become a good/great 3-point shooter if he wanted to. Young/prime TD could get any shot he wanted. If you play up on him, he was quick enough to beat you off the step. If you give him space, his signature bank shot was automatic. Think Anthony Davis with elite footwork along with strong post moves and the ability to back down guys. That's basically what Tim Duncan was. The same way Stephen Curry creates gravity on the perimeter, TD created gravity from the low post, which sets up shooters for open 3-pointers.

Along with having a dominant post game, TD was a great ballhandler for a man his size, and was also a very underrated passer. He was a great passer out of double teams, and the only other player that could ever match his outlet passing skills was Wes Unseld. Because of TD's passing abilities, he often led the Spurs in assists. He also excelled at all the things that didn't show up on stat sheets.

For all the fuss that's made about scoring, people tend to forget about the other aspects that are critical for an offense to function. Tim Duncan was also great off the ball and could get himself some easy baskets by cutting and rolling to the basket. He always hedged the right distance on pick-and-rolls, filled the lane on the break, and also set great screens. You don't see too many superstars focus on those things. TD was pretty much a superstar with a role player mentality.

TD also used his athleticism, physicality, big frame, freakishly long arms, and textbook technique to become an all-time great rebounder. Those same tools also helped him to be a GOAT-level defender. Not only was he an elite rim protector, but TD was also quick and athletic enough to guard perimeter players. He also knew the tendencies of every single player he defended, which is why he was so feared in the paint. In fact, many of TD's blocks were the result of  below the basket anticipation.

TD's defense wasn't fully appreciated. He anchored some historic defenses throughout his career, and the fact that he never won a Defensive Player Of The Year award is CRIMINAL. How about this for perspective? TD played 19 years of All-NBA level defense and only averaged 2.4 fouls per game for his career. The one thing that never changed from Year 1 to Year 19 was him being an active defender that must ALWAYS be accounted for. No other player in basketball history was as good defensively as TD for as long as he was.


*GOAT Franchise Player

How can Tim Duncan not be the greatest franchise player of all-time? Let me make it clear that calling him the GOAT franchise player IS NOT the same as calling him the singular greatest basketball player ever. To me, there is no single greatest player ever, but there is a greatest franchise centerpiece. Those are 2 entirely different things. If your goal is to get the ultimate "team" guy that will carry you to 50+ wins for 2 decades and keep you in the mix for a championship every year, then TD is your guy.

The single biggest reason that Tim Duncan is the GOAT franchise centerpiece is because he, more than any player, provided the highest assurance of lasting excellence and championship contention if you build around him while making the GM's job easier than with other players that qualify as legendary centerpieces. TD is the only guy who instantly makes your team a contender from Day 1 and keep you in contention for 20 years, no matter what supporting cast you put around him.

What exactly do you get from Tim Duncan as your franchise player? For starters, you get the ultimate 2-way superstar and possibly the most flexible star player of all-time. For example, if the Spurs needed him to put up a 30-point, 20-rebound game to win, he did it. If Tony Parker or Manu Ginobili had it going, he would gladly take a backseat on offense and let them shine and then dominate the game defensively. With TD it was all about whatever it took for his team to win.

Also with TD, you get a guy who will be the best player in the NBA (as early as Year 2) for arguably a decade, capable of putting the team on his back and carrying them to multiple championships, then being an elite 2-way player for the second decade of his career and the best player on a championship team in Year 17. You also have no drama or diva behavior, no laziness, no off-court issues, or hatred by teammates for his ego, nor do you have a career shortened by injuries. Who else gives you all of that?

What also speaks volumes about Tim Duncan's greatness as a centerpiece is that the Spurs were drafting in the high 20's every year. It's not easy to build a team that way. Most of the recent championship teams got there with massive signings of Hall Of Fame-caliber free agents, lots of early round draft picks that panned out, or both of those things. It's impossible to tank when you have a player of TD's caliber on your team.

Unfortunately, people want to penalize TD for his unbelievably unselfish nature. His leadership skills helped teammates become All-Stars and ultimately Hall Of Famers themselves. He deferred to teammates offensively when they had a hot hand. He got along with his head coach and stuck with him for years, ultimately trusting the process in order for the Spurs to maximize their success. He didn't retire in the middle of his career, never asked for a trade, nor did he go to management and tell them to fire the head coach. Again, with Tim Duncan it was team over everything.


*Greatest Winner Of His Generation

From the time Tim Duncan first stepped on an NBA court up until the last game he played, he was on a team competing for a championship. His dominance spanned 2 decades. He was a transcendent winner. For starters, in all 19 of his seasons the Spurs won 50+ games or what would prorate out to 50 games. That's also 19 straight seasons with a winning percentage above 60%. 

The Spurs had a 1072-438 record and .710 win percentage during Tim Duncan's tenure with them, which is the best stretch in NBA history. It was also the best 19-year stretch among the 4 major pro sports leagues, as well as the most successful period in the history of North American pro sports. The Spurs are also the only team in the NBA over that span to not miss the playoffs.

The team also won 35 of the 48 (73%) playoff series that TD participated in. He also beat 18 different teams in the NBA playoffs, which is something no other player in history has ever done. TD also has a winning head-to-head record against every single franchise in the NBA, regular season AND playoffs, and nobody else was closer than 8 games under .500 during that time frame.

Of the 3 players in NBA history that won 1,000 regular season games, Tim Duncan is the only one to do it with 1 team. Also, the Spurs only lost in the first round of the playoffs ONCE with a healthy TD on the floor - in an extremely tough Western Conference, and that didn't happen until Year 18. It's flat out amazing how a guy can play 19 years as a starter and make the playoffs every single year, let alone his team being a championship contender every year.

A strong case can be made for Tim Duncan being the GOAT No. 1 pick with the return on investment he was able to produce. He brought them 5 championships, along with that ridiculous regular season winning percentage. It was easy for Spurs fans to take for granted how hard it is for an NBA team to get 50 wins year in and year out. Largely because of TD, they made it look so easy.


People are in no rush to realize that Tim Duncan was much greater than he gets credit for. If you just base it on his resume/credentials alone, he clearly deserves to be in the pantheon of basketball players and be recognized as one of the 5 greatest players ever. I don't think you'll find more than 4 players at ANY period in time, from the creation of the NBA to the establishment of the ABA, that have a better track record than TD. Other than his accomplishments, here are the factors that need to be considered:

*He was the best player at his position during his era.
*He is the consensus GOAT at his position.
*He was an impact player on both ends of the court.
*He was the leader/reason for his team's success.
*He won multiple championships.
*He won championships with different player combinations.
*His team made the playoffs in each of his seasons in the NBA.
*He won Rookie Of The Year.
*He was an All-Star as a rookie.
*He was an All-NBA First Team selection as a rookie.
*He was a multiple-time regular season MVP winner.
*He was a multiple-time NBA Finals MVP winner.
*He had unmatched intangibles.
*He had a legendary will to win.
*He could always be counted on to produce in crunch time.

When you factor in all the elements that go into being a pantheon player (championships, accolades, intangibles, etc.), Tim Duncan checks all the boxes. The deeper you get into the list of these elements, the number of players that fit all of the criteria gets even smaller. Again, TD can go toe-to-toe with any all-time great with his resume, but he's defined most by numbers that are tied to team accomplishments. Here is a list of some of his accomplishments that reflect the unmatched consistency and 2-way dominance over the course of his career:

*Had a 20+ PER (Player Efficiency Rating) in each of his first 18 seasons. (NBA Record)

*Only player in NBA history with 15 All-Star selections, 15 All-NBA selections, and 15 All-Defensive selections.

*Only player in NBA history to be selected to an All-NBA and All-Defensive team in his first 13 seasons.

*Only player in NBA history with 100 offensive win shares and 100 defensive win shares.

*Only player in NBA history to win 1,000 games with 1 team.

*One of only 2 players in NBA history with 25,000 points, 15,000 rebounds, and 3,000 blocks.

*Only player in NBA history with 5,000 points, 2,500 rebounds, and 500 blocks in the playoffs.

*Only player in NBA history to start on an NBA championship team in 3 different decades.

*Only player in NBA history to win a championship in the 1990's, 2000's, and 2010's.

*His 19 seasons with the Spurs are the most ever for a No. 1 pick with the team that drafted him.


Because Tim Duncan had such a long and successful career, there is one important thing that people either don't realize or eventually forget: he played most of his career on 1 good leg. Having a physical disadvantage that kept him from reaching his true potential and still having the career he had only enhances his greatness in my eyes. This ABSOLUTELY has to be factored into the equation when you analyze TD's career and compare him to other all-time greats. Why? He was only at his best physically for the first 3 years of his career.


People are comparing the Tim Duncan of his last 16 years to the peaks of those other greats (on 2 good legs) without the benefit of being able to see him at the height of his powers with both legs being healthy while all of his physical tools are on full display. This is why I can't automatically agree when people say some of these all-time greats are better than TD. That's when I get accused of being biased. Maybe some of those guys were more physically talented than TD, but because of how important the entire package is, that's of limited value. It's also practically impossible to prove because of him only having 1 healthy leg.


Tim Duncan also doesn't get nearly enough credit for his longevity and ability to be great in any system. He won a championship in 3 different decades in different systems and with different players surrounding him. He was great in all of them and a rock no matter what situation he was in. TD won with another great big man and the Spurs playing totally through the frontcourt, he won as the sole superstar with a bunch of role players, he won meshing seamlessly with 2 other star players and no disputes about sharing the ball arising, and he won as a secondary option on a team that pushed the ball and played up-tempo pick-and-roll.


No matter what type of team you want to build, just insert Tim Duncan and you'll do a lot of winning. He also deserves credit for sacrificing and his part in creating the culture in San Antonio for the Spurs to have their unprecedented run of success. It wouldn't be a stretch to say that he brought more value to his team than any other No. 1 overall pick ever has. Here's what makes all of what TD accomplished so great: He did it all in San Antonio. When he first got to the NBA, the concept of a small market team winning an NBA championship was still foreign.


The reason why TD's success in San Antonio is such a big deal is because it takes more to do what he did than a superstar in a big market. There are limitations (spending power, free agent attraction) that come with playing for a small market. Along with all of those constraints, TD also had to deal with a historically stacked Western Conference. The fact that he survived it 6 times to make it to the NBA Finals with those constraints says a lot about his ability to elevate a team to greatness. The Spurs had never won a championship and were considered an also-ran before TD came along and brought them 5 trophies and season after season of contending. You could argue all day long about who was more athletic or more talented than Tim Duncan, but there has never been another player that single-handedly brought more success to a single team than him.



If you truly want to know more about what makes Tim Duncan a basketball unicorn, I go into much more detail in this book titled The Underappreciated Greatness Of Tim Duncan