Why The NBA Lottery Pick Failure Rate Is So High

Why The NBA Lottery Pick Failure Rate Is So High

6/24/10

With the draft being tomorrow and with all these trade rumors going around, I thought I would give my 2 cents on the whole thing. I'm trying to be as objective as I can with my opinion of the Spurs' situation. First of all, I wanted to point out one simple truth: There is no series of moves that the Spurs can make that can guarantee success for them. Any move they make would have its own set of opportunites or risks.

Now as for the title of my thread, I have constantly heard over the years whether it was through the media, conversation, or by reading posts on message boards or blogs about how the success rate for lottery picks is so low. As much as I have heard this all this time, I haven't seen anybody go into detail about why the failure rate for lottery picks is so high. I thought I would take a shot at it. There are several reasons that play a part in it, but before I give my take, I would like to point out some of the research I did a while back.


I went back to the 1995 draft through 2007 to look at picks 1-5, and 10-20, and the success rate for those picks. Here are the picks from those draft spots with 1 All-Star selection or better:

Draft # in parenthesis:
1995 -Rasheed Wallace (4), Kevin Garnett (5)
1996 -Allen Iverson (1), Stephon Marbury (4), Ray Allen (5)
1997 -Tim Duncan (1), Chauncey Billups (3)
1998 -Antawn Jamison (4), Vince Carter (5)
1999 -Elton Brand (1), Baron Davis (3)
2000 -Kenyon Martin (1)
2001 -Pau Gasol (3)
2002 -Yao Ming (1)
2003 -LeBron James (1), Carmelo Anthony (3), Chris Bosh (4), Dwayne Wade (5)
2004 -Dwight Howard (1)
2005 -Deron Williams (3), Chris Paul (4)
2006 -ZERO
2007 -Kevin Durant (2)


There are 22 one-time or better All-Stars out of 13 drafts from the top 5 picks. The MEDIAN is 1.5 one-time All-Stars or better players yielded out of the top 5 picks in the average draft. In other words, a team has about a 30% chance of drafting a one-time or better All-Star out of the top 5 picks. Average seasons played by the players listed in these drafts, about nine. By far, the best draft years for top five picks were 1996 and 2003.” As you can see, even the chance of getting a one-time or better All-Star from the top 5 picks is not very high.

Out of this list, there are 10 players out of the top 5 picks from the previously identified draft years that would be defined as "franchise players":

Kevin Garnett (5) 1995
Allen Iverson (1) 1996
Tim Duncan (1) 1997
LeBron James (1) 2003
Carmelo Anthony (3) 2003
Dwayne Wade (5) 2003
Dwight Howard (1) 2004
Chris Paul (4) 2005
Kevin Durant (2) 2007

The following 2 players were deemed a “franchise player” out of the 10-20 picks during the same draft period:

Kobe Bryant (13) 1996
Steve Nash (15) 1996


Yes this is limited information, but I posted it to show just how aware I am that the chances of drafting a franchise player appear to be very slim, even for those teams that get into the top 5 selection order of the draft, by virtue of a bad record, and a bit of luck. Furthermore, you can see that the “cream of the crop” generally rises quickly from pick 5 up to pick one (4 franchise players from the top pick, just one each from picks #2, #3, and #4, and 2 at #5).

Now here is my take on the high lottery failure rate:

First off, I believe a lot of a lottery pick's success has a lot to do with the environment that he goes into. With that being said, there are 3 ways that a lottery pick can luck up and go to a good team:

1.) Star player of a contender gets hurt a basically misses the season (David Robinson missed all but 6 games in the '96-'97 season, and the Spurs end up with the #1 pick and draft Tim Duncan.)

2.) A past trade by a team that is currently a contender (The Pistons got the No. 2 pick from the Grizzlies in the lottery from a trade in 1997 for Otis Thorpe after they had made it to the Conference Finals that year. An even better example is a one-sided 1977 trade by the Jazz that gave the Lakers the #1 pick in the 1979 draft that landed them Magic Johnson.)
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/782697/how_the_nba_was_changed_by_a_trade.html

3.) A draft and trade (a bad/mediocre team trades a lottery pick to a better team. One example of that is the Cavaliers trading Kevin Johnson to the Suns during his rookie year, or even The Sonics drafting Scottie Pippen and trading him to the Bulls, who finished 50-32 that year.)


Just to keep it simple, I'll use the top 5 pick as an easy example. I might be preaching to the chior on this one, but all of the above situations are extremely rare. If a player is drafted in the top 5, that means he'll be going to a bad team. You never know how things might work out with a lottery pick, but at first glance it seems like the player is set up to fail because:

1.) He is expected to carry the team, and not just the team, but also the hopes and dreams of an entire city.
2.) He is expected to live up to the hype that preceeded him.
3.) He will be compared to other players, possibly even all-time greats that preceeded him. 
4.) He is expected to live up to his draft status and new contract.
5.) He is looked to by family, as well as friends as a gravy train.

This is an enormous amount of pressure for a kid in his late teens/early 20s to live up to, especially if they are not already used to it. Since 1995, the number of draftees straight out of high school or early entries out of college have skyrocketed, and that has a huge impact on the high failure rate as well. These rookies come into the league before they are ready, with an underdeveloped and unpolished game. Not only does that play a significant role in the high failure rate, but it also brings down the quality of basketball in the NBA as well. other than expansion, that's the biggest reason I can think of for the league being watered down.

Not everybody can be as lucky as a Tim Duncan or a Magic Johnson, who were lucky enough to go to teams that were winners without them (when healthy). As a matter of fact, it's possible that neither would have had the careers that they had if they went to other teams and were expected to carry the load right away. As hard as it might be, imagine if Tim Duncan would have been drafted by the Celtics instead. Instead of playing next to David Robinson, he would have been playing next to Walter McCarty or Andrew DeClerq and backed up by Pervis Ellison (a failed #1 overall pick). Imagine if Magic Johnson was drafted by the Jazz instead of the Lakers. In their last year in New Orleans, the '78-'79 season, they finished 26-56. All he would have had to play with was a declining Pistol Pete Maravich. Since he was cut midway through the '79-'80 season, that would mean it's all up to Magic Johnson to carry that team on his back. That 1977 Lakers and Jazz trade changed the whole landscape of the NBA, and so did the Spurs winning the 1997 draft lottery.

With that being said, I do believe the Spurs have backed themselves into a corner and need a shake-up. I would post my reasons here, but I don't want to make this post too long because it's long enough already. I'm one of the few who are in favor of the Spurs trading up to get a big man in the draft tomorrow. I made my case in a previous post and would be glad to give my reasons again if need be. I do believe Tiago Splitter would be a big help if he signs with us, but he wouldn't be enough. We would still need another big man to protect the basket and block shots. Then we still need another perimeter defender. I'm not a big fan of the center-by-commitee approach we have used for the last several years, because centers also need to be on the floor to get into a rhythm, and with this approach each man brings something different to the table. Because of the different skills they possess, you run the risk of tipping off the other team. Once teams figure that out, they'll know how to play you depending on which one is in the game.

That's my take on the draft lottery and what the Spurs could possibly be up against. I hope it was insightful. Thanks in advance for reading.
 

The Underrated Greatness Of Emmitt Smith - Part 1

The Underrated Greatness Of Emmitt Smith - Part 1

I quit arguing my perspective on this topic a long time ago.....Here is my not-so-popular opinion from an excerpt out of a VERY LONG blog that I wrote back in 2009, which can be seen at its entirety here:

Emmitt vs Barry - The Ultimate Debate

Here are some reasons (covered in my blog) why I think Emmitt is, in my opinion, the most underrated star running back ever:

1. The Supporting Cast Double Standard

This is not meant to take anything away from the players surrounding Emmitt, especially since I'm a lifelong diehard Cowboys fan, but let's just keep it real. In Jerry Rice's career, his supporting cast had a combined 69 Pro Bowls and 18 All-Pro (1st Team) selections between them. If you include his offensive lines, that makes 126 Pro Bowls and 33 All-Pro selections. He was a 13-time Pro Bowl, 10-time All-Pro selection himself. Again, what other player has been blessed with a supporting cast like that, especially for HIS ENTIRE CAREER? With that being said, my question is: If Jerry Rice is considered the best of all-time at his position and doesn't get singled out for riding the coattails of his supporting cast, then why does Emmitt get accused for it when his name is mentioned as an all-time great? That's a double standard any way you look at it.

Jerry Rice had THREE MVP quarterbacks Joe Montana, Steve Young, Rich Gannon) throwing him the ball. Montana and Young were 2-time MVPs and both are in the Hall Of Fame. What other receiver can say that he has NEVER been without a Pro Bowl quarterback? Yes, Jerry had a Pro Bowl QB for every team he played for. He had Joe Montana, Steve Young, and Jeff Garcia in San Francisco, Rich Gannon in Oakland, and Matt Hasselbeck in Seattle. He also had some good running backs to work with like Roger Craig, Ricky Watters, Garrison Hearst, and Shaun Alexander. Who can forget the receivers on the other side of Jerry like Dwight Clark, John Taylor, Terrell Owens, and Tim Brown? And, he also had Russ Francis and then Brent Jones at tight end, and Tom Rathman at fullback. Let's not forget all of the linemen he had to protect the QBs long enough to get him the ball. Emmitt's supporting cast was top-notch, but he was the most important and indispensable out of the group. This is why you can't accuse Emmitt of riding the coattails of his teammates. For further proof of that, how about the fact that Troy Aikman and Michael Irvin's careers didn't really take off until Emmitt got there. Yeah, they both had to battle some injuries in the beginning of their careers, but even if they stayed healthy, do you really think they would have had the same success with Paul Palmer (team's leading rusher in 1989) instead of Emmitt Smith? Troy and Michael both made ther first Pro Bowls in 1991, which happened to be the year Emmitt won his first rushing title. That's further proof that a quarterback's best friend really is a solid running game. Also the Cowboys defense benefited from Emmitt's presence, enjoying the honor of being the top unit in the league a couple of times, 1992 and 1994 if I'm not mistaken.

Had anybody ever heard of Jay Novacek before he became a Cowboy? I sure didn't. He was a 6th round pick by the Cardinals in 1985 and came to the Cowboys as a free agent in 1990. He made 2nd team All-Pro in his first season with the team, and from 1991 until his last season in 1995, he made the Pro Bowl every year. What about Daryl Johnston? As critical as Moose was to the running game for the Cowboys, and as good of a fullback as he was, he only made the Pro Bowl twice. Again, this is not to discredit Emmitt's supporting cast, I just wanted to point out that they really do get too much credit for his success. I personally believe that all of the talent that Emmitt had around him made his success that much more impressive, because it was centered around the team's success. They had to get that kind of output from Emmitt to give them the best chance of winning. With as much talent as the Cowboys had, some sacrifices had to be made, and some egos had to be kept in check.

Even with all the talent that Emmitt had surrounding him, teams still feared him the most when they played the Cowboys. He routinely faced defenses stacked with 8 and 9 men in the box. They wanted to take their chances with the passing game and not let Emmitt get going.

2. The Offensive Line Cop-Out

As for a couple of other all-time great running backs, Jim Brown had a Pro Bowl lineman every year he was in the league, and 8 out of those 9 seasons he had multiple Pro Bowlers. He never had less than 3 linemen blocking for him that had Pro Bowl experience. In 1958 and 1959, he had FIVE Pro Bowl-caliber blocking for him....FIVE! Yes, all 5 of them had established themselves as Pro Bowlers by then. Three of those linemen (Lou Groza, Gene Hickerson, Mike McCormack) are in the Hall Of Fame, and 2 other ones still have a slight possibility of making it. Eric Dickerson had multiple Pro Bowlers blocking for him in all 4 of the seasons that he won the rushing title. He was another one who, at least in his time with the Rams, had 3 Pro Bowl-caliber linemen on a regular basis. In 1985, the year after he set the single season rushing record of 2,105 yards, all of his linemen made the Pro Bowl except for his left tackle. It's no stretch to say that Eric Dickerson might have put the all-time rushing record out of reach if he would have stayed with the Rams, because that offense was built around him. It's funny how nobody ever holds against them the offensive lines they had. Oh, and what do Jim Brown and Eric Dickerson have in common? Their back-ups stepped in and led the NFL in rushing after they left their teams. Even 2 of Jim Brown's back-ups (Bobby Mitchell and Leroy Kelly) are in the Hall Of Fame.

For proof that Emmitt's line got too much credit for his success, consider the fact that the first 2 years he made the Pro-Bowl, NONE of his linemen made it, or when he won his first rushing title NONE of his linemen made it. As a matter of fact, in his rookie year, Emmitt was the ONLY Cowboy to make the Pro Bowl. To put it in perspective, when he won his first rushing title in 1991, Emmitt had 2 undrafted free agents, a 10th round pick, an 8th round pick, and a 3rd round pick blocking for him. Jimmy Johnson and Nate Newton both admitted that there were several times when the line wasn't blocking well that Emmitt bailed them out. I will say that those linemen do deserve credit for stepping their games up, but Emmitt was a major factor in the way they were perceived, along with the coaches, and Moose.

The biggest misconceptions about that Cowboys offensive line, were that the line had 5 garunteed Hall Of Famers, ANYBODY could run behind that line and get 1000 yards, Barry Sanders would get 2000 yards every year. There are a lot of people who think the line from that era is the best in NFL history.During 1991-1993, the years of Emmitt's first 3 rushing titles, it could not be said that he had an "All-Pro offensive line." No member of that line made the AP All-Pro team in 1991, only one player made it in 1992 (Mark Stepnoski made the 2nd team) and one in 1993 (Erik Williams). That's 2 selections in 3 years--some teams had as many as 6 selections over that same time period. The Cowboys were one of 8 teams that had 2 or more OL on that All-Pro team from 1991-93. If 2 All-Pro OL selections in 3 of Emmitt's best seasons means Dallas had an "All-Pro line", that would mean that 1/4 of the teams in the league had an All-Pro line.

I just have one question: If that line was as good as everybody made them out to be, why couldn't Emmitt's back-ups come in and put up the same production whenever he wasn't in the game? They had to run behind that same line, and they got their chances to produce when Emmitt was either getting a breather, or when he was hurt and couldn't get it done. For anybody that has an eagerness to prove that Emmitt was just the beneficiary of running behind that offensive line, if you do your research like I did, you'll see that in 4 out of those 5 seasons, Emmitt was at least a full yard per carry better than the next best running back on the team.

One other interesting fact, that offensive line had 3 linemen (Donaldson, Stepnoski, Gogan) that made the Pro Bowl for other teams. The thing is, those linemen had other Pro Bowl-caliber running backs that they blocked for. When Ray Donaldson was with the Colts he had Eric Dickerson, Mark Stepnoski had Eddie George with the Oilers, and with the 49ers Kevin Gogan had Garrison Hearst (before he broke his ankle).

3. Intangibles/Impact On The Other Units

Emmitt was the epitomy of what a running back should be, the prototype for what championship caliber teams want their running backs to do, extend the drive ... extend the drive ... extend the drive ... then score. He was an outstanding pass blocker, something Barry either wasn't capable of or willing to do. When the Cowboys needed yardage, Emmitt almost always got it for them. He might not break off one for 80 yards, but he would just beat teams down 4, 6, 3, 2, 8 yards at a time. Then when the defense got tired, he might break off a long run. Barry broke ankles the way most of us walk down the street, but Emmitt elevated his team, and he did it when it counted. Because of Emmitt's ability to control the clock, the Cowboys defense was able to stay fresh. They looked as good in the 4th quarter as they did in the 1st.

Emmitt was also the best goal-line back in league history. The red zone is where running backs earn their paychecks. Emmitt was as good as there ever was at sealing the deal for his football team. Speaking of that, Emmitt has the NFL record for touchdowns under 10 yards with 138, and 85 of them were from 3 yards or less (which is also an NFL record). Barry apologists are quick to point out that Emmitt's career 4.2 YPC pales in comparison to Barry's 5.0 YPC, this is the reason why. When you score so many of your touchdowns from a short distance like that or have so many 3rd and short conversions, that cuts into a running back's YPC.

Go back and look at the punting stats for the Lions when Barry was there. They punted an awful lot, far too often for a team with a running back that good. If you can find the game stats from those years you will also see that if you look at the play by play that if you took away Barry's longest run of the game he often barely averaged 2.5 yards per carry. But he'd mix in a 60+ yard run and it would look like 4.5 yards per carry. If you look directly at the Lions stats from Barry's last year (1998) and the 2 years that followed, you'll notice that they actually won more games despite less talent with Barry's absence you will see one very telling stat. Look at the 3rd down conversion %. It backs up my point. They converted better, sustained more drives, and scored a little bit more. The big difference was that the Lions' defense wasn't so tired from all the 3 and outs, and they allowed fewer points. That translates to more wins. All of the units of a football team integrate and fit together like a puzzle, and they all affect each other in some way.

Since I'm talking about the Lions' records after Barry retired, why not take it further? In 1998, Barry's last year, the Lions were 5-11. The following season, the Lions improved to 8-8, and in 2000 impoved by one more game to 9-7. They went from 9-7 in 2000 to 2-14 in 2001, and 3-13 in 2002. How did they go from 9-7 to 2-14? Two words: Matt Millen. He was hired in 2000, and when he got settled in, decided to shake the team up. During his time in Detroit, Matt Millen was never able to dig the Lions out of the hole he dug for them. During his tenure, the Lions had an apalling record of 8-50. Ouch!!!

How I Became A Fan Of My Teams & Favorite Players

How I Became A Fan Of My Teams & Favorite Players

I am a die-hard Dallas Cowboys fan, and have been since I was 5 years old, about the time where I became old enough to know what football was. What attracted me to the team first was the uniform, and then seeing the star on the helmets. By the time I was about 7 or 8 years old, I was able to learn the players' names and actually start keeping up with the team. From that point on, I was a full-blown fan of the team. It's been a little hard to root for the team for the past few years, but I'm still a die-hard fan no matter what. I never thought I would get to this point, but it's hard for me to celebrate and enjoy a win these days. I would give anything to see the team start winning consistently again like they did during the Super Bowl years. My favorite all-time Cowboy/NFL player is Emmitt Smith, who in my opinion, is a top 3 all-time running back. I believe he is grossly underrated, mainly because he gets penalized for the teammates he had. I remember watching some of his games when he was at Florida and hoping the Cowboys could find a way to draft him, but thinking they didn't have a chance. I was ecstatic when the Cowboys made that trade with the Steelers in the 1990 draft (from #21 to #17) to draft Emmitt.....the rest was history. My favorite current Cowboy is Dez Bryant, and history seemed to repeat itself when he was drafted in 2010. He (like Emmitt) had some labels put on him, he slid on draft day, and the Cowboys traded up to get him (from #27 up to #24). One other similarity between the 2 players that not a lot of people notice: a team with a bird as their mascot wanted to draft both of them before the Cowboys took them. The Falcons wanted Emmitt Smith, and the Ravens had their eyes on Dez Bryant. Dez also had the distinction of not being the first player selected at his position, even though he was the best. He was EASILY a top 5 talent, and in my opinion, the prize of the 2010 draft. He was definitely a steal for where the Cowboys picked him. Dez is a once-in-a-generation talent, blessed with extremely rare physical gifts. Even coming into the league, I thought he was the most physically gifted wide receiver in the NFL. He has had some rough patches so far, but I'm very happy with the progress that he's making, and I believe as soon as he learns the ropes that he will be the best receiver in the NFL.

My favorite basketball team is the San Antonio Spurs, and I have been a die-hard fan of them since I was 9 years old. My favorite all-time/current Spur (NBA player) is Tim Duncan. My favorite current Spur other than him is Kawhi Leonard. I became a fan right before David Robinson joined the team, but he was the reason I became a fan. Let me explain: I remember watching a game the season before he joined the team (the Spurs were 21-61 that year), and they showed highlights of The Admiral and said that he would be with the team next year. From that point on, I was hooked, because I was amazed at what I saw in those clips of him at Navy. All I kept seeing was him with those powerful dunks, that leaping ability, blocking shots in bunches, and those muscles. Before The Admiral joined the team, Alvin Robertson was the team's best player. Robertson was known for his defensive prowess, and was one of only 4 players in NBA history to ever put up a quadruple-double in a game. He played 5 years for the Spurs (1984-1989), and then was traded to the Milwaukee Bucks along with Greg "Cadillac" Anderson for Terry Cummings. I remember The Admiral having an instant impact when he first joined the team. The Spurs had a 35-game turnaround from the previous season (a 56-26 record), which was an NBA record back then.  Even though I was only in the 4th grade then, I still remember the starting lineup for that season: David Robinson, Terry Cummings, Sean Elliott, Willie Anderson, and Maurice Cheeks-who was traded to the Knicks about midway through the season for Rod Strickland. I remember enjoying watching the Spurs play every year, only to be frustrated in the end when they came up short. I honestly believe to this day that the '94-'95 Spurs were good enough to win it all that year, but Hakeem Olajuwon had something else in mind that year. To me, that's the best team in the pre-Duncan era not to win a championship. (I'm only 33 years old, so I don't know much about the George Gervin era, except that those were some high-scoring teams.)

I was disappointed that things didn't work out with that team, especially with us having to trade Dennis Rodman, because that left us a big gaping hole at power forward. Fast forward to the '96-'97 season, that was a frustrating season to watch unfold, but there most definitely was a silver lining. Injuries piled up that year, and never seem to let up. David Robinson only played 6 games that year because his back started to constantly give him problems and then he ended up breaking his foot, Sean Elliott had tendonitis in both of his quadriceps and only played in 39 games, and the team was a rudderless ship without those 2 players. The best player on that team ended up being 37-year old Dominique Wilkins. He was originally signed to back up Sean Elliott and give the Spurs some depth at the small forward position, but he ended up carrying the team and being the Spurs' lone bright spot, and they finished the season with a 20-62 record. There was very little to cheer about during the season, but it all worked out in the Spurs' favor in the end, because the unthinkable happened: The Spurs won the 1997 draft lottery!!! I really couldn't believe it.....I literally was in complete shock for the rest of the week. I remember watching the lottery at halftime of the Heat-Knicks game, and I remember the Celtics supposedly having the best odds of getting the #1 pick and everybody (especially them) thought they would get it. Then the lottery started, and the next thing I know, I see the Celtics come up at #6, the #5 and #4 picks.......and the Spurs' name still hadn't been called, then I started getting anxious. Then I see the Celtics come up again at #3 (which shocked me), and once I saw the card for the Sixers come out of the envelope, I immediately went into a frenzy and stayed amped up for the rest of the night. I didn't sleep much that night, but after I woke up from the little bit of sleep I did get, I still had that extra spring in my step and on a high from the night before. The biggest reason why I'll never forget this particular NBA Draft Lottery is because it was my first time witnessing my favorite team winning the #1 pick and knowing exactly who they would draft, and that was also the first time the Spurs drafted the player I wanted. When the Spurs won the lottery 10 years earlier for the right to draft David Robinson, I was only in the 1st grade, so I wouldn't have been aware of what was going on. I remember watching a lot of basketball on TV, but I hadn't become a Spurs fan yet. Anyway, mostly all I could think about for the next week was that the Spurs would be drafting Tim Duncan.

I remember watching Wake Forest games every chance I got, and seeing the battles that Tim Duncan had with Rasheed Wallace, Marcus Camby, and Keith Van Horn. If I wasn't able to watch a game, I would check the box scores in the paper the next morning to see how he did. Tim Duncan was my biggest reason for even watching college basketball then, because with the number of early draft entries skyrocketing, especially with high schoolers, the talent pool was become more and more watered down. I knew he was the best player in the nation and was always intrigued by him, so I decided to keep track of him. I first heard of The Big Fundamental when the news came out that he played Alonzo Mourning to a tie in a one-on-one game at 16 years old. Alonzo Mourning was the #2 pick in the 1992 draft (behind Shaquille O'Neal) and an All-Rookie First Team selection, who later went on to be a 7-time All-Star and 2-time Defensive Player Of The Year, one of the biggest young stars in the NBA......got played to a tie by a 16-YEAR OLD Tim Duncan!! A little while after that, I forgot about Tim Duncan for a little while, until my memory was refreshed when I saw him play the first time. I believe he could have left school school after his freshman year if he wanted to, and still been drafted #1, but staying in school did wonders for is development and was the biggest reason he went into the NBA already polished, and was dominant from Day 1. I just knew the Spurs getting Tim Duncan was a pipe dream, especially since they already had David Robinson, and they were already contenders. I, along with everybody else (especially everybody in Boston), was so sure that The Big Fundamental would be a Celtic. He ended up in the best place possible, with the perfect team for him, and I'm ecstatic that things worked out the way they did.

The day the Spurs won the lottery and it was obvious who they would be drafting, Tim Duncan instantly became my favorite player. I will admit that he exceeded my expectations......BY FAR!! I figured he would come in averaging 15 points and 8 rebounds, and maybe average those numbers for his career. I would have never guessed that he would come in and dominate the way he did as a rookie, running away with the ROY award (1 vote away from being a unanimous selection). Never could I imagine him becoming the greatest power forward of all-time, and arguably a top 5 NBA player of all-time. Who would have thought the Spurs would have the highest winning percentage of any major professional sports team over the last 16 years? What about winning 50 games for an NBA-record 14 years in a row? Even to this day with the season he's had so far, he has exceeded my expectations, having the best season he's had in a few years- after everybody thought he was done a couple years ago. This season he's been the best big man in the league. It's just magical to watch him out there on the basketball court, which is his chess board. George Gervin was the Spurs' first superstar, David Robinson saved the Spurs, but neither one of them changed the landscape of the franchise the way Tim Duncan has. I have thoroughly enjoyed watching him play the 4 years he was at Wake Forest and the last 16 years with the Spurs. Tim Duncan is a symbol of my adulthood, meaning he has been in the NBA for my entire adult life. I was a senior in high school when he played his first NBA game. I believe he's the most underrated and underappreciated superstar, not only of his generation, but all-time. I will always appreciate what he's done for the Spurs, and will continue to savor and enjoy each and every chance I get to watch him play.

About The Author

About The Author

I created this blog, because of my writing hobby, to express my opinions and view points on a variety of sports topics. I have been passionate about sports for as long as I can remember, whether I was playing, watching on TV, or going to games. My favorite sports are football, basketball, and track, which are the sports I played. As far as basketball, that was my first love, and I even wanted to be in the NBA one day. I went to a couple of camps as a teenager, played at rec centers, PE class, playgrounds, backyards, and even for my church's team. I was never able to practice and develop my game the way I wanted to (and I had the size for it), mostly because I was so sheltered as a kid. That's also why I got such a late start in football and track. I had to fight like hell to even be able to play those sports. I didn't want the physical gifts that I had to go to waste, that's why I was so adamant about using them. Basketball didn't work out for me, but once I started playing football, I started to excel at it and realize that I was better at football than I was in basketball. I ran track for 2 reasons: I was fast, and to stay in shape for football. Then it turns out that I was better at track than I was in football. It was most certainly obvious by the way I was treated by teammates and coaches when both of those sports were in season. I was able to play football in high school and in college, at Alabama A&M University. Robert Mathis, DE for the Indianapolis Colts was a teammate of mine, and I had the privilege of playing against DeMarcus Ware (Troy University). I currently play semi-pro football here in Alabama. The name of my team is the Huntsville Rockets, and my position is wide receiver, the only position I have ever known.

I am a die-hard Dallas Cowboys fan, and have been since I was 5 years old, about the time where I became old enough to know what football was. My favorite all-time Cowboy (NFL player) is Emmitt Smith, and my current favorite Cowboy is Dez Bryant. My favorite basketball team is the San Antonio Spurs, and I have been a die-hard fan of them since I was 9 years old. My favorite all-time/current Spur (NBA player) is Tim Duncan. My favorite current Spur other than him is Kawhi Leonard. I also have a big soft spot for David Robinson because he was the reason I became a Spurs fan, before he even played a game for them. One day I was watching a Spurs game on TV (I believe it was on CBS.), and they showed highlights of The Admiral and said he would be joining the team the next year. Once I saw those clips, I was hooked, and have been a fan ever since.

I will be writing mainly about both of my favorite teams, but I will also be writing about a variety of other topics as well, such as:

-how I became a fan of my teams

-professional sports being fixed

-success/failure rate of draft picks

-psychology of sports uniforms

-my top 10 all-time NBA players

-my thoughts on what a coach is

-semi-pro football

-and much more

In my writing, I will do my best to give honest and solid opinions, being as rational and objective as I possibly can without being biased. I even do my due diligence with my research so I can back up what I'm saying in my posts. If I have statistics in my writing, expect me to list my sources to back me up. I also want to bring an outside-the-box view point to certain topics when I can. Also, feel free to like Out Of Bounds on Facebook and check out and follow my other blog titled Blowing The Whistle at www.blowingthewhistle2012.blogspot.com. Feel free to comment on my blog enteries and voice your opinions on the topics as well. PLEASE KEEP IT CLEAN....Thank You!!

Tom-Tom