6/24/10
With the draft being tomorrow and with all these trade rumors going around, I thought I would give my 2 cents on the whole thing. I'm trying to be as objective as I can with my opinion of the Spurs' situation. First of all, I wanted to point out one simple truth: There is no series of moves that the Spurs can make that can guarantee success for them. Any move they make would have its own set of opportunites or risks.
Now as for the title of my thread, I have constantly heard over the years whether it was through the media, conversation, or by reading posts on message boards or blogs about how the success rate for lottery picks is so low. As much as I have heard this all this time, I haven't seen anybody go into detail about why the failure rate for lottery picks is so high. I thought I would take a shot at it. There are several reasons that play a part in it, but before I give my take, I would like to point out some of the research I did a while back.
I went back to the 1995 draft through 2007 to look at picks 1-5, and 10-20, and the success rate for those picks. Here are the picks from those draft spots with 1 All-Star selection or better:
Draft # in parenthesis:
1995 -Rasheed Wallace (4), Kevin Garnett (5)
1996 -Allen Iverson (1), Stephon Marbury (4), Ray Allen (5)
1997 -Tim Duncan (1), Chauncey Billups (3)
1998 -Antawn Jamison (4), Vince Carter (5)
1999 -Elton Brand (1), Baron Davis (3)
2000 -Kenyon Martin (1)
2001 -Pau Gasol (3)
2002 -Yao Ming (1)
2003 -LeBron James (1), Carmelo Anthony (3), Chris Bosh (4), Dwayne Wade (5)
2004 -Dwight Howard (1)
2005 -Deron Williams (3), Chris Paul (4)
2006 -ZERO
2007 -Kevin Durant (2)
There are 22 one-time or better All-Stars out of 13 drafts from the top 5 picks. The MEDIAN is 1.5 one-time All-Stars or better players yielded out of the top 5 picks in the average draft. In other words, a team has about a 30% chance of drafting a one-time or better All-Star out of the top 5 picks. Average seasons played by the players listed in these drafts, about nine. By far, the best draft years for top five picks were 1996 and 2003.” As you can see, even the chance of getting a one-time or better All-Star from the top 5 picks is not very high.
Out of this list, there are 10 players out of the top 5 picks from the previously identified draft years that would be defined as "franchise players":
Kevin Garnett (5) 1995
Allen Iverson (1) 1996
Tim Duncan (1) 1997
LeBron James (1) 2003
Carmelo Anthony (3) 2003
Dwayne Wade (5) 2003
Dwight Howard (1) 2004
Chris Paul (4) 2005
Kevin Durant (2) 2007
The following 2 players were deemed a “franchise player” out of the 10-20 picks during the same draft period:
Kobe Bryant (13) 1996
Steve Nash (15) 1996
Yes this is limited information, but I posted it to show just how aware I am that the chances of drafting a franchise player appear to be very slim, even for those teams that get into the top 5 selection order of the draft, by virtue of a bad record, and a bit of luck. Furthermore, you can see that the “cream of the crop” generally rises quickly from pick 5 up to pick one (4 franchise players from the top pick, just one each from picks #2, #3, and #4, and 2 at #5).
Now here is my take on the high lottery failure rate:
First off, I believe a lot of a lottery pick's success has a lot to do with the environment that he goes into. With that being said, there are 3 ways that a lottery pick can luck up and go to a good team:
1.) Star player of a contender gets hurt a basically misses the season (David Robinson missed all but 6 games in the '96-'97 season, and the Spurs end up with the #1 pick and draft Tim Duncan.)
2.) A past trade by a team that is currently a contender (The Pistons got the No. 2 pick from the Grizzlies in the lottery from a trade in 1997 for Otis Thorpe after they had made it to the Conference Finals that year. An even better example is a one-sided 1977 trade by the Jazz that gave the Lakers the #1 pick in the 1979 draft that landed them Magic Johnson.)
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/782697/how_the_nba_was_changed_by_a_trade.html
3.) A draft and trade (a bad/mediocre team trades a lottery pick to a better team. One example of that is the Cavaliers trading Kevin Johnson to the Suns during his rookie year, or even The Sonics drafting Scottie Pippen and trading him to the Bulls, who finished 50-32 that year.)
Just to keep it simple, I'll use the top 5 pick as an easy example. I might be preaching to the chior on this one, but all of the above situations are extremely rare. If a player is drafted in the top 5, that means he'll be going to a bad team. You never know how things might work out with a lottery pick, but at first glance it seems like the player is set up to fail because:
1.) He is expected to carry the team, and not just the team, but also the hopes and dreams of an entire city.
2.) He is expected to live up to the hype that preceeded him.
3.) He will be compared to other players, possibly even all-time greats that preceeded him.
4.) He is expected to live up to his draft status and new contract.
5.) He is looked to by family, as well as friends as a gravy train.
This is an enormous amount of pressure for a kid in his late teens/early 20s to live up to, especially if they are not already used to it. Since 1995, the number of draftees straight out of high school or early entries out of college have skyrocketed, and that has a huge impact on the high failure rate as well. These rookies come into the league before they are ready, with an underdeveloped and unpolished game. Not only does that play a significant role in the high failure rate, but it also brings down the quality of basketball in the NBA as well. other than expansion, that's the biggest reason I can think of for the league being watered down.
Not everybody can be as lucky as a Tim Duncan or a Magic Johnson, who were lucky enough to go to teams that were winners without them (when healthy). As a matter of fact, it's possible that neither would have had the careers that they had if they went to other teams and were expected to carry the load right away. As hard as it might be, imagine if Tim Duncan would have been drafted by the Celtics instead. Instead of playing next to David Robinson, he would have been playing next to Walter McCarty or Andrew DeClerq and backed up by Pervis Ellison (a failed #1 overall pick). Imagine if Magic Johnson was drafted by the Jazz instead of the Lakers. In their last year in New Orleans, the '78-'79 season, they finished 26-56. All he would have had to play with was a declining Pistol Pete Maravich. Since he was cut midway through the '79-'80 season, that would mean it's all up to Magic Johnson to carry that team on his back. That 1977 Lakers and Jazz trade changed the whole landscape of the NBA, and so did the Spurs winning the 1997 draft lottery.
With that being said, I do believe the Spurs have backed themselves into a corner and need a shake-up. I would post my reasons here, but I don't want to make this post too long because it's long enough already. I'm one of the few who are in favor of the Spurs trading up to get a big man in the draft tomorrow. I made my case in a previous post and would be glad to give my reasons again if need be. I do believe Tiago Splitter would be a big help if he signs with us, but he wouldn't be enough. We would still need another big man to protect the basket and block shots. Then we still need another perimeter defender. I'm not a big fan of the center-by-commitee approach we have used for the last several years, because centers also need to be on the floor to get into a rhythm, and with this approach each man brings something different to the table. Because of the different skills they possess, you run the risk of tipping off the other team. Once teams figure that out, they'll know how to play you depending on which one is in the game.
That's my take on the draft lottery and what the Spurs could possibly be up against. I hope it was insightful. Thanks in advance for reading.
Now as for the title of my thread, I have constantly heard over the years whether it was through the media, conversation, or by reading posts on message boards or blogs about how the success rate for lottery picks is so low. As much as I have heard this all this time, I haven't seen anybody go into detail about why the failure rate for lottery picks is so high. I thought I would take a shot at it. There are several reasons that play a part in it, but before I give my take, I would like to point out some of the research I did a while back.
I went back to the 1995 draft through 2007 to look at picks 1-5, and 10-20, and the success rate for those picks. Here are the picks from those draft spots with 1 All-Star selection or better:
Draft # in parenthesis:
1995 -Rasheed Wallace (4), Kevin Garnett (5)
1996 -Allen Iverson (1), Stephon Marbury (4), Ray Allen (5)
1997 -Tim Duncan (1), Chauncey Billups (3)
1998 -Antawn Jamison (4), Vince Carter (5)
1999 -Elton Brand (1), Baron Davis (3)
2000 -Kenyon Martin (1)
2001 -Pau Gasol (3)
2002 -Yao Ming (1)
2003 -LeBron James (1), Carmelo Anthony (3), Chris Bosh (4), Dwayne Wade (5)
2004 -Dwight Howard (1)
2005 -Deron Williams (3), Chris Paul (4)
2006 -ZERO
2007 -Kevin Durant (2)
There are 22 one-time or better All-Stars out of 13 drafts from the top 5 picks. The MEDIAN is 1.5 one-time All-Stars or better players yielded out of the top 5 picks in the average draft. In other words, a team has about a 30% chance of drafting a one-time or better All-Star out of the top 5 picks. Average seasons played by the players listed in these drafts, about nine. By far, the best draft years for top five picks were 1996 and 2003.” As you can see, even the chance of getting a one-time or better All-Star from the top 5 picks is not very high.
Out of this list, there are 10 players out of the top 5 picks from the previously identified draft years that would be defined as "franchise players":
Kevin Garnett (5) 1995
Allen Iverson (1) 1996
Tim Duncan (1) 1997
LeBron James (1) 2003
Carmelo Anthony (3) 2003
Dwayne Wade (5) 2003
Dwight Howard (1) 2004
Chris Paul (4) 2005
Kevin Durant (2) 2007
The following 2 players were deemed a “franchise player” out of the 10-20 picks during the same draft period:
Kobe Bryant (13) 1996
Steve Nash (15) 1996
Yes this is limited information, but I posted it to show just how aware I am that the chances of drafting a franchise player appear to be very slim, even for those teams that get into the top 5 selection order of the draft, by virtue of a bad record, and a bit of luck. Furthermore, you can see that the “cream of the crop” generally rises quickly from pick 5 up to pick one (4 franchise players from the top pick, just one each from picks #2, #3, and #4, and 2 at #5).
Now here is my take on the high lottery failure rate:
First off, I believe a lot of a lottery pick's success has a lot to do with the environment that he goes into. With that being said, there are 3 ways that a lottery pick can luck up and go to a good team:
1.) Star player of a contender gets hurt a basically misses the season (David Robinson missed all but 6 games in the '96-'97 season, and the Spurs end up with the #1 pick and draft Tim Duncan.)
2.) A past trade by a team that is currently a contender (The Pistons got the No. 2 pick from the Grizzlies in the lottery from a trade in 1997 for Otis Thorpe after they had made it to the Conference Finals that year. An even better example is a one-sided 1977 trade by the Jazz that gave the Lakers the #1 pick in the 1979 draft that landed them Magic Johnson.)
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/782697/how_the_nba_was_changed_by_a_trade.html
3.) A draft and trade (a bad/mediocre team trades a lottery pick to a better team. One example of that is the Cavaliers trading Kevin Johnson to the Suns during his rookie year, or even The Sonics drafting Scottie Pippen and trading him to the Bulls, who finished 50-32 that year.)
Just to keep it simple, I'll use the top 5 pick as an easy example. I might be preaching to the chior on this one, but all of the above situations are extremely rare. If a player is drafted in the top 5, that means he'll be going to a bad team. You never know how things might work out with a lottery pick, but at first glance it seems like the player is set up to fail because:
1.) He is expected to carry the team, and not just the team, but also the hopes and dreams of an entire city.
2.) He is expected to live up to the hype that preceeded him.
3.) He will be compared to other players, possibly even all-time greats that preceeded him.
4.) He is expected to live up to his draft status and new contract.
5.) He is looked to by family, as well as friends as a gravy train.
This is an enormous amount of pressure for a kid in his late teens/early 20s to live up to, especially if they are not already used to it. Since 1995, the number of draftees straight out of high school or early entries out of college have skyrocketed, and that has a huge impact on the high failure rate as well. These rookies come into the league before they are ready, with an underdeveloped and unpolished game. Not only does that play a significant role in the high failure rate, but it also brings down the quality of basketball in the NBA as well. other than expansion, that's the biggest reason I can think of for the league being watered down.
Not everybody can be as lucky as a Tim Duncan or a Magic Johnson, who were lucky enough to go to teams that were winners without them (when healthy). As a matter of fact, it's possible that neither would have had the careers that they had if they went to other teams and were expected to carry the load right away. As hard as it might be, imagine if Tim Duncan would have been drafted by the Celtics instead. Instead of playing next to David Robinson, he would have been playing next to Walter McCarty or Andrew DeClerq and backed up by Pervis Ellison (a failed #1 overall pick). Imagine if Magic Johnson was drafted by the Jazz instead of the Lakers. In their last year in New Orleans, the '78-'79 season, they finished 26-56. All he would have had to play with was a declining Pistol Pete Maravich. Since he was cut midway through the '79-'80 season, that would mean it's all up to Magic Johnson to carry that team on his back. That 1977 Lakers and Jazz trade changed the whole landscape of the NBA, and so did the Spurs winning the 1997 draft lottery.
With that being said, I do believe the Spurs have backed themselves into a corner and need a shake-up. I would post my reasons here, but I don't want to make this post too long because it's long enough already. I'm one of the few who are in favor of the Spurs trading up to get a big man in the draft tomorrow. I made my case in a previous post and would be glad to give my reasons again if need be. I do believe Tiago Splitter would be a big help if he signs with us, but he wouldn't be enough. We would still need another big man to protect the basket and block shots. Then we still need another perimeter defender. I'm not a big fan of the center-by-commitee approach we have used for the last several years, because centers also need to be on the floor to get into a rhythm, and with this approach each man brings something different to the table. Because of the different skills they possess, you run the risk of tipping off the other team. Once teams figure that out, they'll know how to play you depending on which one is in the game.
That's my take on the draft lottery and what the Spurs could possibly be up against. I hope it was insightful. Thanks in advance for reading.
No comments:
Post a Comment